Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
