Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
